The Blame Game

I read an article in the Nov. 26 issue of The Economist, titled "A downgrade for Congress". 
It begins: "It was not a very ambitious target.  All that the congressional "supercommittee" was required to do was to figure out a list of measures that would reduce America's budget deficits by $1.2 trillion over the next ten years.  That sounds like a lot, until you realise it is only 0.6% of GDP, not even a quarter of the $5 trillion or so that is really needed to right the books in Washington, and less than 3% of the $44 trillion that the federal goverment is expected to spend over that period.  To reach a goal that a business cost-cutter would regard as desultory, the bipartisan committee of 12 senators and congressmen was accorded exceptional powers.  Its work was to be subject to a simple up-or-down vote, with no possibility of amendment; and the Senate would not be able to use its power to filibuster.  Yet on November 21st, after three months of deliberation, the team was forced to admit that it had failed."

And the Blame Game kicked into high gear, the Democrats blamed the Republicans, the Republicans blamed the Democrats and the public was left shaking our collective heads at the degree of dysfunction we witness daily amongst our elected officials and the partisanship which has been elevated to a new level.

The article concludes with one suggestion why the supercommittee might have failed to meet its goal = no real sense of urgency.  "America is not Italy: this week, its ten-year government bonds were trading at well below 2%, the lowest levels for over half a century ..."

Which brings me to the last point I wanted to make regarding the "Blame Game."
I was thoroughly disgusted with all the blame being heaped upon little ole Greece during the summer and early Autumn.  Yes, the Greek politicians had managed (mismanaged sounds better) to completely over-leverage their country and had dug a massive hole for themselves -- and the various bankers were all-too-happy to saddle them with bailouts, which, it should be pointed-out, are not "gifts", but rather additional loans with crushing terms.  Massive austerity measures were depressing everything and everybody in Greece and the rest of the world was using it as a scapegoat for the mess the Europeans were finding themselves in ... blame it all on the Greeks!

That's where the other shoe dropped.  Wait a minute ... perhaps Italy has an economic problem, oh and Spain too.  Italy isn't a small economy, like Greece, they are the #3 economy in the Euro zone.
Now all of a sudden the European economic powerhouses are calling an emergency meeting early next week to figure a way out of the looming economic meltdown ...

I wonder who will be blamed next.
More importantly, I hope the Blame Game stops and we start seeing the politicians and the bankers working cooperatively to bring the world economy back to health.

Food, Water, Energy and Population Growth

I had the opportunity to eat a Primanti"s sandwich last week, which got me thinking ... more on this in a moment.

For those of you who may have not heard of this before, Primanti Brothers is a chain of restaurants in Pittsburgh, who serve a rather unique sandwich that has attained iconic status in this city.
The history behind this sandwich is fun to read, though I have a hard envisioning somebody eating this sandwich with one hand, while driving a truck with the other ... it is simply (huge http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primanti_Brothers).

We heard on the news a month ago, that Primanti's has been named one of the "manliest" sandwich restaurants in the nation - a rather dubious honor, but one which caused more than a few smiles. 
In case you want proof, here is a link to a picture of me eating my Primanti's sandwich - snapped by my sister (https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=10150373631472512&set=at.66614997511.70714.820847511.820847511&type=1&theater).

Enough with the frivolity however.  What triggered this blog post was a story I heard over the weekend, that global population would reach an estimated 7 billion people on Monday, Oct. 31, 2011 and related news stories yesterday and this morning.
You may enjoy watching the video at the top of this story, which helps visualize the growth of the Earth's population over the last few thousand years (http://www.npr.org/2011/10/31/141816460/visualizing-how-a-population-grows-to-7-billion).

The question of how many more people can live on Earth, what some scientists call Earth's carrying capacity, is a very complex one, with many variables potentially coming into play (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacity). One way to simplify the equation, is to talk about food, water and energy.

The food part of the equation is how I started this blog post -- meat and animal-derived products require more land and resources than grain-based foods -- the thinking is that as more people around the world enter the middle class, they will want more meat and animal-derived products, which will strain global food production.  Improvements in agriculture may be able to offset this increased demand (to a point).

The water part of the equation is one which seems to be more dramatic in some parts of the world than in others.  It is fair to say however, that access to clean water for an increasing global population will be a huge problem to overcome in the years to come.  Water supply and purification mechanisms, as well as improvements in infrastructure to deliver the clean water to the population with minimal losses (and to remove the dirty water), will be definite areas of attention.

Then there is energy.  One news story mentioned that parts of the world which are more developed are currently enjoying "cheap energy" and that the developing world will also want access to the same amount of energy being consumed in the more developed countries. A finite oil and fossil fuel supply is only part of the problem here -- it is also worth considering the energy efficiency of whatever we use which consumes energy and also energy wasted due to carelessness.

One of the areas of my job I truly enjoy, is related to AEVs (Alternative Energy Vehicles) and all the lightweight and energy-efficient materials my company supplies which can decrease the weight of any vehicle while simultaneously increasing their energy-efficiency.  If you are interested in finding out more about this, feel free to check-out our Facebook page -- and if you like what you see, kindly click on the "Like" button too (https://www.facebook.com/BayerMaterialScienceAEV).  Thanks!

The 118

I was reminded today of a phrase I heard from Jeffrey Hayzlett (ex-CMO at Kodak).   
He was talking about "The Elevator Pitch" - 2.0 
He calls it "The 118" -- as in: "you have 118 seconds to get your point across". 

His position is that the average adult's attention span is 8 seconds -- that's all the time someone has to make an initial impact.  The other 110 seconds, what Jeffrey claims is the average time an elevator ride lasts in NYC, is how long you have to "sell" him/her. 

Phrased differently, if you are preparing a long-winded presentation, hoping to impress me, you are approaching this the wrong way.
Obviously, you will not be able to come up with the correct words and to structure your position/proposition in that short a time period without some serious preparation and practice. 
... so heads-up, make sure you practice!

I got a cold call today, from someone talking 100-miles-an-hour, hoping to impress me by throwing out names of well known, major companies, who he claimed were clients -- *yawn*!
After 30 seconds he had not even begun to get close to his point, after 120 seconds I still had not heard his value proposition ... so I cut him off. 
I explained he had failed to "hook" me, that I was not trying to be rude, however I was very busy and I just did not have the time to sit and listen to the stuff he was rattling off. 
It became apparent he was annoying me. 

My parting words were that he needed to practice his 118 and I gave Mr. Hayzlett and his book "The Mirror Test" a "plug". 
You are welcome Jeffrey.
Now I need to go practice my own 118 ... 
Summer vacation is over people, let's get with the program! 

The Brink

A divided government that seems stuck in perpetual gridlock, took the US economy to the brink of default, only to be saved by a last-minute agreement last week. 
Apparently this was not enough for Standard & Poors (S&P), the debt rating agency which was not capable of warning about impending problems with Lehman Brothers, or with the mortgage debt crisis a couple of years ago.  
S&P downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+ and the stock market which had been having one bad day after another for the past two weeks, had an absolutely horrendous day today.  Over the last couple of weeks, the stock market has declined by a figure that is closing-in on 20%. 

Meanwhile, the President has a mere 42% approval rating and Congress has a dismal 14% approval rating! 
The polls notwithstanding, it should be immediately obvious to even the most casual observer that the citizens of the US do not think any of the politicians are doing anywhere near an acceptable job.

I think it is clear we are not simply approaching the brink of disaster; we are teetering on the very edge.  The question before us now is: can any one of the political geniuses figure-out how to keep us from tumbling over that edge? 

Adventures in Space

I experienced a bittersweet moment today, as news arrived that the shuttle Atlantis did manage to lift off from Cape Canaveral for the last time a few hours ago, despite the inclement weather in Florida -- here in Pittsburgh as well, it is overcast and rainy.
I liked this coverage in the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/atlantis-astronauts-ready-for-final-launch-as-nasa-keeps-watchful-eye-on-cloudy-weather/2011/07/08/gIQA8FcR3H_story.html?wpisrc=al_national).
I also recommend clicking on the second video link for a brief (less than 6 min) history of the Space Shuttle program from the 1st to this the 135th and final flight (http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/remembering-the-shuttle-era/2011/07/01/AG35yStH_video.html).

I have previously blogged about the "Coolest Job Ever", so my personal angle/excitement about the subject should be obvious. 
The truth of the matter however, is that the International Space Station is now manned and operational and the only existing means of moving people to/from it are the Russian Soyuz spacecraft.  Unfortunately, the Soyuz spacecraft can carry far less in both personnel and payloads/cargo than the Space Shuttles.
Since it will be years before NASA's successor to the Space Shuttle will be operational, I believe the adventures in space (OK, near-Earth orbit if you want to be nit-picky) are just beginning. 

From an economic/financial standpoint meanwhile, there will be thousands, if not tens of thousands of people currently employed by NASA, who will be added to the ranks of those seeking employment during these tough economic times.  I would like to wish each of them a speedy resolution to their personal adventure as well.

Blurring the Line Between Games and Reality

Running errands this afternoon, I was driving and listening to the radio.
There was an extremely interesting discussion regarding how games affect us and about the future direction games may be headed in (http://www.onthemedia.org/2011/jul/01/future-gaming/). 

Why would this interest me so much you ask?
Because I really enjoy playing games! 
One of the lines uttered during the interview by the way, was that while people often play games to escape reality, more and more games are making connections to the real world (that is pretty profound).

One of the people interviewed was Jesse Schell, a professor at the CMU (Carnegie Mellon University - right here in Pittsburgh) Entertainment Technology Center and the CEO of Schell Games.  In Prof. Schell's vision of the (near?) future, he sees a time when sensors will become so ubiquitous, that all our actions every day will be recorded, tabulated and assessed.  Therefore our everyday actions in the real world, such as brushing our teeth, taking the bus instead of driving our cars, walking instead of driving, or watching certain commercials on TV, will all result in us getting awarded bonus points.  In other words our daily actions and habits will be turned into a "game" and the points we earn in the "game" will have real-world implications (such as coupons for things we buy, lower health insurance premiums, or tax credits for the examples listed above).

I know this is a foreboding look at the future and one which does not sound like much fun to some, however Prof. Schell's thesis completely blew my mind.  He stated that since all our actions will be recorded and will be available for our children and for future generations to inspect, if the "game" is designed correctly, it may be possible to modify our behaviors and inspire us to become better people than we might have otherwise turned out.

That puts a different spin on the game of Life ... or maybe it does not.

If you want to listen to Prof. Schell's talk entitled "When Games Invade Real Life", just click on the link (http://www.ted.com/talks/jesse_schell_when_games_invade_real_life.html)
** warning it lasts 28 minutes ** 

Independence

The long 4th of July weekend is upon us and thoughts naturally turn to the reason behind the holiday.
This holiday commemorates the United States' declaration of independence from Great Britain in 1776, an act considered brazen by many at the time, given Britain's overwhelming military superiority.  It also brings to mind other similar acts.

The Greek War of Independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1821 is celebrated on March 25.  This began only a few decades after the Americans and perhaps the planners of that war had been heartened and influenced to some extent by the success the Americans ultimately enjoyed in their bid for independence.  What I found interesting was the utilization of the media of the day to generate support for the Greeks among the European nations, a fact which ultimately helped lead to the intervention of Russia, France and the United Kingdom on the side of the Greeks against the Ottomans.

In the last few months we have witnessed what has been termed by some the Arab Spring with demonstrations and rebellions taking place in various Arab world nations.  What has been interesting has been the utilization of social media by the protesters, to coordinate their activities, generate global support for their causes and provide transparency into the responses employed by the various governments, even when news reporters have not been present.

Ultimately the lesson we can glean is that people don't like to be constrained and they will seek ways to become independent from whatever constrains them.  The tools they choose to use are what they have on hand and what they find to be most effective.
In today's world, social media are powerful indeed and they need to be employed by those seeking maximum effectiveness in their quest for independence from whatever is boxing them in.
I wish all my friends a happy Independence Day, however I also want to remind them to "think before you tweet".

Think Before you Click

A blog entry by Jeff Cole, PR 101 Lesson #106 It Doesn’t Matter What You Were Told In Kindergarten – Sharing Is Not Always A Good Thing ( http://www.pr101.biz/pr-101-lesson-106-it-doesn%e2%80%99t-matter-what-you-were-told-in-kindergarten-sharing-is-not-always-a-good-thing/ ) made me think about the advice I was given some time back when I started my foray into the world of Social Media: "don't drink and tweet."  

It sounds deceptively simple and yet it is rather profound.  When you create content on the social web, or on the web in general, people will find it/see it, regardless of whether you think it is shielded or not.  The word "content" by the way, describes everything from a 140-character tweet, or a comment on a website, to a blog entry, to a picture or video you post.

In light of the above therefore, it only makes sense to employ common sense rules. 
The way I usually describe the decision point when I am sharing my experiences goes something like this -- if you could stomach seeing your content on the front page of the newspaper or on the 6 o'clock newscast, if you wouldn't mind your content discovered by your mother/spouse/friends/boss, then go ahead and click 'OK', or hit 'Enter'.  If you feel you can defend it, you are in the clear. 
If you find yourself hesitating however, then you ought to rethink the wisdom of creating this content. 

As Jeff points out, "Here’s the first thing that we all should remember – social media doesn’t kill careers, people using social media kill careers." If you want proof, you might want to check this link: Rep. Anthony Weiner Resigns  ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/anthony-weiner-to-resign-thursday/2011/06/16/AGrPONXH_story.html?wpisrc=al_national) 
Just keep this in mind therefore and think before you click. 

Wise Advice

I read an excellent article by David Brooks in the NY Times the other day, titled "It's Not About You."
It was directed at all the young people graduating from the various colleges and universities.
He stated: "If you sample some of the commencement addresses being broadcast on C-Span these days, you see that many graduates are told to: Follow your passion, chart your own course, march to the beat of your own drummer, follow your dreams and find yourself. This is the litany of expressive individualism, which is still the dominant note in American culture.

But, of course, this mantra misleads on nearly every front." 

The problem today's young people face is figuring- out how the system works, of picking their way in the big world out there and of finding the problem or problems which call out their name, asking for a solution. 

David correctly points-out that we typically admire people who display excellence. 
Excellence requires repetition, dedication and likely some sacrifice.
The self will stand in the way if we try to pursue excellence and those who excel will find ways of pushing the self aside and relentlessly attacking the problem until it is solved. 
This is wise advice indeed. 

New and Familiar

I was driving and changing radio stations this morning.
I switched to a station that was in the middle of interviewing a musician named Ray Davies about his latest album. 
His name didn't trigger any particular reaction at first, but then I heard a music clip and the memories suddenly came flooding in. 
This was music I used to listen to many years ago -- music I liked -- music by the group The Kinks.

It was New (especially the lyrics from the featured artists) and at the same time very Familiar.

Now I was hooked and listened with interest as the interview progressed and more music was played.

I resolved to go online and listen to the entire interview when I returned home.
Here is a link to the story in case you might be interested: http://www.npr.org/2011/05/29/136656570/ray-davies-thats-what-friends-are-for  
I listened to a couple of music clips posted to the website.
Then I purchased a few of the tracks from my favorite online music provider. 

Here is another review of the album "See My Friends" with a little more information.
Time to reflect as I listen to my new musical acquisitions. 
Ray Davies' music marketers and producers will secretly smile and intone "mission accomplished." 
They got me to buy his music after all ...
I am more interested in the lessons taught by this aging rocker however: 
a) the passion is still there 
b) the respect of all the other musicians who are featured on this album is clear (The Kinks are widely recognized as one of the most influential bands of their era after all) 
c) Ray Davies has shown through this album that when you do something you like, even rehashing old favorites in an album which doesn't contain even one new song can create excitement 
Nicely played Mr. Davies.

Shameful Behavior by Honda

A few weeks ago the amber "idiot light" lit-up in the dashboard of my wife's 2002 Honda Odyssey minivan.
Naturally she was concerned, she took it in to the Honda dealer and after paying for a diagnostic test, received the verdict -- "You need a new transmission.  Estimated cost is $3600."  *gulp!* 

Now I know what you're thinking: "it's a nine-year-old vehicle John, you can expect things to need replacement" -- true, but the car has only been driven 73K miles and it has led a very gentle life -- not to mention that there was previously a safety recall for the vehicle's transmission -- and the transmission's 2nd gear had been replaced back in 2004 due to that safety recall.

"Which gear is failing now?" you ask, yeah, 2nd gear again, what a coincidence!

Upon exploring the online world, surprise-surprise, many owners of the same vehicle have faced similar problems.

Here is a simple search on Google: http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&source=hp&q=2002+honda+odyssey+transmission+problem&aq=3&aqi=g5&aql=&oq=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=9651d7334bd74320

A few entries from www.carcomplaints.com: http://www.carcomplaints.com/Honda/Odyssey/2002/transmission/transmission_failure.shtml

A few entries from www.hondacarforum.com: http://www.hondacarforum.com/honda-2/10033-honda-odyssey-2002-transmission-problems.html

One more site - www.odysseytransmission.com: http://www.odysseytransmission.com/ProblemCases?msgId=632 << 116 owners of 2002 Honda Odysseys have posted their experiences on this site

Complaining to American Honda resulted in my case being eventually being handled by a Regional Manager named "Walter".  I will refrain from making any comments about Walter's personality, or lack thereof ... 

At the end of the complaint process, and due to my couple decades of loyalty to Honda vehicles, American Honda's final offer was to cover 55% of the cost of the new transmission, even though they did not acknowledge any problems with 2002 Honda Odyssey transmissions.  That left me paying 45% of the transmission cost and after also adding-in replacement costs for some failing suspension components, brought the bill to a bit over $2200.

I will end my rant with a summary.
I have continued buying Honda (and Acura) vehicles over the years because of their solid reputation for quality and reliability.  Through this episode and the follow-up research I described however, it has become apparent that Honda has had numerous quality problems with the transmissions on its minivans -- yet it is failing to acknowledge these problems.

Basic business practice Honda: when you have a problem, you acknowledge it and you fix it (your problem means you pay for it), you thank your customers for their loyalty and you hope they will consider your response in the future and remain loyal to your brand.

I will soon be replacing our Honda Odyssey -- do you think I will buy another Honda vehicle?
I don't think so Honda -- and you have no one to blame for it than your own shameful behavior.

Coolest Job Ever

A smile subconsciously crept across my lips as I read a recent New York Times article: 
"With 'Coolest Job Ever' Ending, Astronauts Seek Next Frontier" 

I was briefly transported through the mists of memories long forgotten to my early childhood years. 
I still remember watching the Apollo 11 moon landing "live" on TV on July 21, 1969 -- yes I was young, but the idea that those guys were walking on the MOON just brushed aside all the childish thoughts competing for attention inside my head and had me riveted to the TV... I remember later building plastic models of the Apollo 11 Atlas V rocket as well as a large model of the 'Eagle' lunar module -- to me at that age, being an Astronaut was indeed the 'Coolest Job Ever'.

Do you remember the answers you gave to the adults who asked you "what do you want to be when you grow up?" through the years? 
I think as reality/maturity set-in, my answers evolved somewhat as follows: Astronaut > Fighter Pilot > Airline Pilot > Race Car Driver > Tank Commander ... and eventually my love of the sciences took over and directed me to more reality-based pursuits. 

You might wonder, like me, now that the NASA missions are winding down, what will all the Astronauts do? 
Reading the NY Times article, it appears there are plenty of opportunities for employment at either agencies which work with NASA, or at private space flight companies. 

Incidentally, I've heard the term "Space Tourism" for a few years now, however I still think of it as an idea which is not quite ready for "prime time" yet.  Perhaps I am wrong though -- anyone ready for a near Earth orbit experience?

Christos Anesti

I would like to wish everyone a happy and joyous Easter today.   

I am inserting a couple of images from Holy Friday taken in the Holy Cross church.  

Epitafios in Holy Cross church at the beginning of the Holy Friday night service.

Procession of the Epitafios in Holy Cross church during the Holy Friday night service.

My daughter had helped decorate the Epitafios with flowers on Friday morning.  

One of the more memorable moments of the evening service was that of the Deacon reading the Petitions and the psalms from his e-reader (it looked like a Kindle).  

Christ is Risen -- Truly he is Risen 

Get Real

Late last week I heard the news that the ABC network will soon be cancelling two of its daytime dramas: "One Life to Live" and "All My Children" (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110414/ap_en_ot/us_tv_daytime_dramas). 
These types of shows, which air in early afternoon and are affectionately called soap operas, were originally created for radio and targeted/appealed to housewives to sell detergents and other products made by the huge consumer products companies like P&G (Procter & Gamble).

The shows being cancelled were created in 1968 and 1970 respectively -- that is, they have been on the air for over 40 years.  During this time, the demographics of the daytime TV audience have changed and these shows were apparently experiencing steadily declining audiences -- approximately 2.5 million viewers were regularly watching each show at last count.  The ABC network explained the programming change as an adaptation to the changing face/demographics of daytime TV viewers.

I am definitely not a fan of soap operas, nor am I one to critique evolution in the face of change, however I wonder if this will be a change for the better.
It is being reported that both soap operas will be replaced by "reality TV"-type shows. 
"One Life To Live" will be replaced by a health and lifestyle show which will document the weight loss transformation of a different woman each week, while "All My Children" will be replaced by a show about food and nutrition.

More reality TV shows simply amount to another reason why I am happy to be at work when these shows will be airing ... 

Shutdown

It has been all over the news the last few days.
The deadline of midnight tonight (Friday, April 8, 2011) looms over the political landscape, as a Federal government shutdown becomes a possibility. 
In a game of political "Brinksmanship" the Republican-controlled Congress is pushing the Democrat-controlled White House to either make drastic budget cuts, or face the prospect of not getting a mid-year budget passed by the deadline, which will shut down the government.

There are an estimated 800,000 Federal workers who may not go to work on Monday and who face the prospect of going without a paycheck.
- Do you need a passport?  Sorry, those Federal workers who process passports are likely going to be considered "non-essential" personnel and they will be sent home if the government shuts down.
- Do you feel like visiting a national monument, or one of the national parks?  Sorry, the same goes for the folks who work there.
- April 15 is the deadline for Americans to file their 2010 Federal, State (and for some of us Local) tax returns.  If you are scheduled to receive a tax refund and you filed your return electronically, you will likely receive a credit to your account, but if you mailed-in your tax return, you could be waiting for that refund check for a long time.

Politicians are trying to score points for their parties, refusing to compromise, all the while weighing how their actions today will affect their re-election campaigns in the future. 
Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of people are holding their breaths, hoping for an avoidance of a government shutdown, quite literally at the eleventh hour. 
Is this what they call a Democracy? 

I think back to the comedian Johnny Carson and the following line which is attributed to him:
"Democracy is buying a big house you can't afford with money you don't have to impress people you wish were dead. And, unlike communism, democracy does not mean having just one ineffective political party; it means having two ineffective political parties."

Renewal

Last week we had cold weather, even snow, as March came to a close and April began.
Spring, it appeared, was not quite ready to visit Pittsburgh. 
Over the weekend the weather got a bit milder and rain replaced the snow. 

A little after 6 pm on March 30, 2011 -- the snow is starting to collect on my car as the temperature hovers right above zero.

Today it was downright warm, with a temperature of 70F (21C) as I prepared to leave my office for a lunchtime walk in the woods.  The wind was blowing hard and the western horizon looked dark however, so I grabbed an umbrella - just in case the weather turned wet. 
Sure enough, about midway through my walk, fat raindrops began to splatter all around me - the umbrella was soon unfurled, as the rain turned into a soaking shower.
The woods began to smell of wet earth and my thoughts turned to nature's renewal.
Leaves will soon be growing on the bare tree branches and all sorts of greenery will spring from the ground as the temperatures rise. 

A Daisy's white petals "pop" against the verdant green of the undergrowth in the woods -- June 1, 2010

Nature's impending renewal could serve as a reminder to people perhaps, that it is time to shake-off the extra baggage we might have accumulated over the winter months and renew our outlook as well.  I wonder how many will notice and ultimately how many will accept the invitation. 

Goodbye Stamps?

Ten years ago I would have thought this crazy -- no more stamps?

A few years back we were introduced to self-adhesive stamps as a logical, evolutionary, development to the "lick-it-and-stick-it" variety ...

Now we are talking about sending an SMS to the Post Office, getting charged for a stamp and receiving a code in return -- you write the code on the envelope and drop the letter in the mailbox.

You Had a Good Run, OId Stamps: SMS Codes for Postage Coming to Europe
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/you_had_a_good_run_oid_stamps_sms_codes_for_postag.php

The rate of change (or "evolution" as I like to call it) seems to be ever-accelerating.

I remember collecting stamps when I was younger -- it was a fascinating way to let the imagination roam based on a the tiny images that were printed on those little paper rectangles. Today of course there are so many other ways to expand a person's horizons (think of image search results in thumbnail form as a comparison), that collecting stamps seems very "passe".  It will also be pretty hard to do, if no more stamps are being printed... 

And yet the romantics among us will undoubtedly pause, reflect and feel some sadness at this latest evolution.

Spring Thoughts

Today is the first working day of Spring 2011 (Spring officially began last weekend). 
While experiencing nature's re-birth, thoughts wander to what the future might have in store for us. 
I am not referring to geopolitical changes as much as technology here.

For example I have previously posted my thoughts on Mobile Payments and even mentioned a futuristic Cash-Less Society.  It appears Mobile Payments are expected to hit the mainstream at around 2015, while it might take a little longer for the Cash-Less Society concept to take root (2025+). 
You might be wondering "How does he know that?" (scroll down)

On the Sustainability/Green front, Fuel Cells are certainly close at hand (a couple of years to hit mainstream), however Smart Meters don't make it to mainstream until 2015 and for Piezoelectricity to be widely used it will likely be past 2020.


On March 9, I posted a link to this excellent infographic to my Facebook page - I just wanted to expand on the concept in this note.
Michell Zappa (michellzappa.com, or @mz on Twitter) has pulled together knowledge from diverse fields to create a vision of what the next 25 years might hold for emerging technologies: http://www.fastcodesign.com/1663367/infographic-of-the-day-the-next-25-years-in-emerging-tech 

Like it or hate it, Michell's infographic will definitely make you think.

Luck of the Irish

Today is St. Patrick's Day.

Irish and "wannabe-Irish" will celebrate, Chicago officials will dye their river green (see picture in above link) and many will find this a great excuse to down a drink or two.
You might also hear people talk about the "Luck of the Irish."

I saw a great blog post by Brian Matt of Altitude today, which catalyzed this blog post of my own:

http://altimeter-blog.altitudeinc.com/bid/35487/Do-you-feel-lucky-Happy-St-Patrick-s-Day

Brian points-out that "luck is the opportunity to seize something before you which results in something positive."

A basic requirement for luck then, is the ability to be open to alternative points of view, to be thinking about possibilities, to "keeping your eyes open."  And (as Brian points-out) to also be willing to take calculated risks.

Sounds pretty common-sense to me -- and you don't need to be Irish to practice these habits either.
May the "Luck of the Irish" be with you today and every day of the year.

Seismic Isolation

Hearing and seeing the stories pouring out of Japan after Friday's massive earthquake, one feels an immense sense of helplessness.  You see all these people who's lives were turned completely upside-down and who are sometimes reverting to that most basic of human behaviors -- survival mode.
They naturally will feel shell-shocked, though assistance may be close-at-hand -- I heard that aid is quickly pouring-into Japan from around the world and that this famously closed society is accepting aid even from nations which it typically views with distrust, such as China and S. Korea.
I just heard that there are already seven U.S. Navy warships close to Japan, lending assistance -- including the supercarrier USS Ronald Reagan with its fleet of helicopters.

The title for this post came from a story I heard about earthquake building codes and about how even though buildings are designed to protect lives during truly massive earthquakes, the buildings do not remain serviceable.  In other words, even though the buildings might not collapse during the earthquake, thereby saving the lives of their occupants, they will not be inhabitable and will ultimately need to be knocked down and re-built.

The latest Structural Engineering technology apparently revolves around "Building Resiliency" and "Seismic Isolation" of buildings.  The former employing novel materials which can better withstand the violent movement of earthquakes and the latter employing devices which serve to isolate the building from the movement of the ground, much like the shock absorbers found in a car. 
These technologies, which sound like science fiction, are apparently being employed today.

Designing Buildings to Withstand Earthquakes

Edited on March 15:
I saw another article on the subject of this blog post titled:
Making Buildings Safer with Earthquake Shock Absorbers
Interesting stuff for sure.

Just when you thought ...

I saw an announcement that the time will change tonight (March 12).
The time will "Spring Forward" by an hour, to compensate for the "Fall Back" experienced last Autumn/Fall.
When you hear that the time will change you naturally think that spring is near.

It seems Mother Nature has other ideas though.
I'm posting some pictures from our March 11 snowfall.
The temperature dropped a degree or two below freezing overnight and the rain that had been falling for the last day or two turned to heavy, wet snow.
It was not a massive snowfall (about 2 inches, or 5 cm), but it certainly served to remind us that spring and the warmer weather do not automatically arrive when the calendar says so.

Transient Signs of Life

I enjoy walking in the woods -- some might tell you I get a huge kick out of walking rapidly up and down the steep paths among the trees, the activity representing a jolt of energy and motion during a mostly sedentary day.
There are many forms of wildlife to observe during these walks, from the hawks riding the thermal currents, looking for their next meal, to the deer which scamper away at your approach, as do the wild turkeys, the rabbits, the groundhogs, the squirrels and the chipmunks.

During winter, the woods are much quieter than in other seasons, the cold causing the animals to restrict their activities and the snow muffling whatever sounds might exist.  As my boots crunch in the snow, I find myself searching for signs of life during my winter walks.  I seem to focus on the prints the various critters leave in the snow.  These are, of course, among the most temporary of the visible marks these organisms can leave in their wake and this may very well be the reason I find them so interesting.

Human tracks intersect with Wild Turkey tracks on a path in the woods.  The size of their prints gives an idea of the physical size of these birds.

What about the marks I leave behind, you might ask.  Human footprints in the snow, which can be filled-in by the next snowfall, or erased when the temperature warms-up, represent the transient signs the human lifeforms leave behind as they traverse through the woods.  While they do temporarily alter the landscape, at least they don't represent any long-term changes to the environment, like the trash the careless might toss away.

On January 31, I snapped the picture shown here.
The walking trails through the woods are regularly cleared of the snow by the maintenance crews, so that they remain relatively easy to navigate, even when we receive massive snowfalls.
The sun had come out and the temperature had briefly warmed above freezing that day, which had caused the thin layer of uncleared snow to melt off the dark-colored path.  Curiously, there were some footprints which remained however -- what caused this phenomenon?
"Elementary my dear Watson", Mr. Holmes would say in explanation.
The weight of a person compresses the snow and causes it to temporarily melt.  Of course the thin layer of water in the footprint is surrounded by the colder snow, so it rapidly re-freezes, turning into ice.
When the weather warms-up, the snow melts faster than the ice.  Thus the untouched snow on the path melts first, while the icy marks left behind by the few humans who wandered this way linger-on for a while longer, before they too are erased.

More Snow?

It was painful getting to work today -- Pittsburgh received 8 inches (20 cm) of snow last night and clearing the driveway to move my car out on the street (which took a LONG time) was the easy part of the morning's experience (temp. was 19F or -7C). 
School was canceled at 6 am, which is when I started the shoveling.

Once the driveway was clear and the car was uncovered from the snow, I pulled into my neighborhood streets which were surprisingly clear of snow and ice (the local road crews had done a magnificent job). 
Then came the hair-raising task of navigating the ice-covered highway to get to work.
I can't remember seeing so many cars that had spun-off the roads in all my years in Pittsburgh.
The snow plow operators and the tow truck drivers will be working overtime to get things back to normal !

And to think that we had 60F (15C) last Friday and thoughts of Spring were in the air ...

Can't Blame the Weather Anymore

I read an article about "Snow Contracts" which blew my mind.
The premise sounds rather bizarre -- a company purchases a contract and ... bets on the amount of snow that will fall -- or will not fall.

Cashing In On Snowstorms

It used to be that weather was viewed as something beyond people's control - an act of nature.
With "Snow Contracts", business people are attempting to lessen the financial impact of e.g. a severe snowfall, or even an entire winter season and the business interference they can cause.

For example, if a massive blizzard prohibits: 1) your manufacturing facility from making product, 2) your shipping company from delivering the product, or 3) people from driving to your store to buy the product (causing your sales to drop), you can now cover some or all of your losses.  This presumes of course that you had the foresight to negotiate a "Snow Contract" a few months in advance... 

This winter has been a pretty rough one for people in the US, as well as in other parts of the world.
With the availability of "Snow Contracts", CEOs will have one less excuse for company stockholders, should their business decline.

Show Me the Money

Crass commercialism entered my thoughts as I pondered the title for this blog post.
The above line from the 1996 film Jerry Maguire, is one that seemed to fit.

I heard a story on the radio this morning that stuck in my head.
In Haiti, over a year has elapsed since the devastating earthquake and the process of rebuilding seems to be barely inching along.  People live in sometimes squalid conditions and technology seems very distant.  And yet, in the country which used to be the poorest in the Western hemisphere before the earthquake (one can only imagine how much further they receded due to the earthquake), the very modern concept of electronic money, or the use of cell phones as debit cards, seems to be gaining ever widening adoption.

Perhaps it represents the ever accelerating pace of new technology becoming available, or simple economics and convenience -- only a small fraction of the population in Haiti have bank accounts and it costs less to use this service than others currently available on the market -- or the fear of disease agents, such as cholera, which might be transferred with paper money.  Perhaps it is all three of these conditions (and more) combined.

Another related article had caught my eye a few days ago.  It was titled "The End of Credit Cards is Coming" and it had explained how cell phones are about to take-on the additional role of credit cards (which are a close relative to debit cards mentioned in the Haiti article I made reference to).

Now re-imagine the phrase "Show Me the Money" and think of the image at right (feel free to substitute the image of an iPhone or Android device if you like).  Imagine using your cell phone as your virtual wallet and not having to handle paper money and coins again.

In order to complete this little near-future glimpse into the topic of money (and in case you would like one more thing to worry about), I will leave you with one last point.  The incredible amount of information stored in our smart-phones and the unparalleled access these little devices could wield in the future is outlined in an article titled: "Your most dangerous possession?"

Snow Days

How do you know when it is winter in Pittsburgh?
"When it is cold and everything is white" is one answer.
The first major snowfall of 2011 is upon us.

It started yesterday at noon, as I was walking through the woods -- it was clear at first, but it was really cold and you could "smell" the coming snow.  Then it started as tiny iceballs which bounced-off the ground, soon to be followed by larger flakes which were falling densely after about 10 minutes. 

By the time my walk in the woods was finished, it was snowing hard.

By the afternoon, there were 3-4 inches (5-8 cm) on the ground and it was still snowing hard.  All the roads were slippery and traffic was moving very slowly, as the snow plows/salt trucks valiantly tried to clear the major roadways faster than the snow could collect.  Once I arrived at my house, I shoveled the driveway, although it continued to snow hard (less snow to shovel in the morning, I figured).

This morning I woke-up early, grabbed the snow shovel and cleared the driveway and sidewalk again - it was around 20F (-7C) and the snow continued to fall, while the wind whipped at any exposed skin.  The wind chill was around 10F (-12C).  I cleared the snow off the cars and went inside to warm-up and get ready for work.  In less than an hour I was ready to leave, however my car needed to be cleaned again, as the snow was collecting at a fast pace.

Less than an hour after I cleaned it of the overnight snow, my car needed to be cleaned again before I could drive.

The schools had a two-hour delay, but a "snow-day" was not declared for our school district.
I slowly ventured out of my neighborhood and was promptly stuck in various traffic jams as cars moved slowly and people tried to get to their jobs.

A Long line of vehicles inches forward more than a mile away from the highway ramp.

Winter in Pittsburgh could also be called snow days.
FYI, the film Snow Day could also be discussed here, however I'll leave that as a subject for another post.